Augusto Krappa
@augustokrappa · 10 de março de 2026 às 14:21
**UBS - Growth vs. margin trade-off?; We maintain Buy on** $RDOR3 We update our RDOR model incorporating Q4 results, reducing our PT by ~14% (to R$48.00, from R$56.00) and keeping our Buy rating. In our view, 4Q was a datapoint that suggest that the company will stick to its growth oriented mentality in the Hospitals BU driven by three main points: 1) the continued Hospital operational expansion; 2) increase in complex procedures; 3) oncology outpacing consolidated growth. Even though these drivers will likely pave the way for long-term sustainable growth (supported by tickets and optimized occupancy), margins could expand in a more gradual pace. SulA dynamics appear to counter balance Hospital pace better profitability being driven by smart products (which naturally tend bring slower ticket pace due to efficiency mechanisms such as fraud prevention, copay and stricter reimbursements policies). All in, we continue to see sizeable EPS expansion - with a fine tune of volume (+) vs. margin (-). Following the recent correction on the stock (down ~15% in the last two weeks), we see RDOR3 trading at ~16x 2026E P/E (the lowest historical premium to Ibov), while we still see a relevant earnings expansion in the coming years with 2026/27E PEG at 0.55x (17% below company's average of 0.66x). We maintain our Buy rating in RDOR3. Moderating Hospitals margins; SulA keeps surprising positively Following the procedure mix shift seen in 2H25 with relevant growth on surgeries performed and oncology infusions, we moderate our estimates of margin expansion in the Hospitals BU (UBSe adj. EBITDA margin now at 25.4% 26E and 26.6% 27E, from 27.2% and 28.6% respectively in our prior estimates). We expect, on the other hand, this to sustain Patient-Day growth at ~4/5% YoY in 2026/27E, combined with ~7% ticket expansion. At SulA, 2H25 results indicate that assistance costs appear to be structurally lower following several efficiency initiatives. As such, we anticipate an easy comps on MLR for 1H26, with 2026E MLR standing at 78.5%. Changes to our estimates: 26E net income revised down -4%; 27E -8% Our 2026/27E net revenue estimates are virtually unchanged. Our adj. EBITDA margin is revised down by ~50bps 26E and ~75bps 27E with diverging trends between Hospitals and SulA, leading our adj. net income estimates down by ~4-8% 2026-27E.
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